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一個人的力量


有部電影叫《東京日和》,其中有場戲,讓我花了幾年的時間來琢磨——丈夫在街頭偶見妻子獨自行走時,忽然被妻子安靜的jobs樣子給震撼——那時候,我以為,他的震撼來自於,他發現,原來他的女人沒他的陪伴時也挺怡然。

現在,一句詩卻給了我新的角度:站在街角不等誰,這本身就是一種力量感。

和一位男性好友聊天,他說,他單獨出去吃飯時,總是會告訴服務生有兩個人,然後,等飯菜上來,多事的服務生若有詢問,他便解釋一句:“朋友來不了。”問他為什麼會有這樣的怪僻,他閃爍其詞:“一個人吃飯挺怪的。”

和一個台灣女人聊天,她說,她不管吃飯還是去做髮型,都會帶上書,用書將自己和旁人的好奇隔絕——獨自一人時,她不願意被他人打擾,甚至,也不願意麵對自己,所以將精力集中到另一個世界去。

還有女友,曾經吸煙的理由就是:“一個人呆著的天妍專業紋繡中心時候,不至於顯得無事可做,手裡拿根煙,讓發呆顯得不那麼呆。”

與自己好好相處也許才是最難的事情,如果不是在自己的寓所,就更容易敏感緊張成一隻掉隊的小獸,不敢輕易靠近誰,也不想被他人靠近。

書,或者隨身聽、墨鏡,與其說是享受或裝點,不如承認吧——用這掩飾不安的盾牌來杜絕彼人看穿、靠近、傷害。

所以才會從小女孩時,就需要拉著小伙伴一起上學放學,連去洗手間都要約個共同的時間:長大後,手里拉的不再是同性夥伴,而是異性的戀人,除了上班下班上洗手間,希望能夥同對付所有其他的時間……越是迴避獨處,越是害怕獨處:越是想躲避傷害,越是會迎來傷害。收拾得體面漂亮的女人們,內心脆弱得像塊湖上的薄冰,於是轉身羨慕那些彷彿擁有力量的女人們。

其實,用不著羨慕,這些女人們的精神內核非常簡單:不等待任何人,也就不需要任何人:不用道具隔離自己,也就不隔離任何可能性;不害怕發呆時的呆,也就更能在精神世界裡專注……

她們取勝的法寶,就是安靜,就是漫不經心,就是可以因為要專心塗指甲油而掛掉戀人的電話而產生的難以被掌控的力量感。你看這一路走來 流年裏一襲芳華 清香傳得天心在,未話尋常草木知 給的心太柔軟,經不起風,也經不起浪 用一枚實名戒指來彌補我對你的愛 慢慢地走,慢慢地嚼 只能在回憶裏,等你 黯然回首,愛已走遠 錯過你,錯過愛 我承認我是一個矛盾的人
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Tax effects of summer Cleveland Cavaliers Brendan Haywood trade

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Last Thursday鈥檚 trade deadline was a fairly quiet affair for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Sure, you can discuss the merits of Kendrick Perkins and his presence as a fourth big for this streaking team. But largely, the most impactful Cavs news from last week was a non-transaction.

After some recent speculation from the blogosphere, the Cavs decided to keep veteran center Brendan Haywood and his peculiar contract. 鈥淚鈥檝e been around a long time. I can read,鈥?the 35-year-old told the . 鈥淚 know my contract situation.鈥?
And boy, it sure is a unique situation. Haywood is earning only $2 million this season. That鈥檚 about to be expected for a player of his service time in the league. This coming summer, however, he鈥檒l be a remarkably valuable trade asset because of an unguaranteed $10.5 million figure for 2015-16.

That鈥檚 a massive deal. No team would want to pay that kind of money for what Haywood has done on the court. But many would happily trade for him to clear off another oversized deal. The issue wasn鈥檛 the desirability of Haywood鈥檚 contract during the summer. The issue was that the Cavaliers would be punished for using it to its full advantage.

, the Cavaliers are expected to be over the NBA鈥檚 luxury tax next season. That was going to be the case no matter what. With the news of keeping Haywood through the trade deadline, and some recent NBA rumblings, we can update the salary cap situation a little bit further.

The NBA Players Association will not agree to a smoothing of the cap increases. This was announced shortly before the All-Star Game. NBPA executive director that it was a unanimous vote by team representatives. This is mostly good for Cavs GM David Griffin.

With the league鈥檚 new $2.6 billion annual TV contract beginning in 2016-17, there had been speculation the league would push for a smoothing of cap increases. The current TV contract is only $900 million per year. A one-year jump like that would cause significant issues for free agency, accounting and more.

A smoothing proposal could have brought the cap from $63 million this season gradually up by $10 million each year for three years. Without smoothing, the cap is expected to jump by maybe $6 million this season and then a whopping $20 million the year after.

As I shared previously, a basic layout of the 2015-16 Cavs player salaries plots the team at about $89.4 million for 11 players:

salary situation for 2015-16 gonna get messier and messier. About $89M sans Haywood.

Jacob Rosen (@WFNYJacob)



Smoothing would have meant the Cavs would be over the tax line for 2015-16 and 2016-17, guaranteed. But without smoothing, there remains an outside chance the team could back under the line barely in two years. This is major news in avoiding the dreaded repeater tax 鈥?an added jump in tax rates for teams over the tax in three out of four years.

No smoothing also means lower possible jumps in salaries for the team鈥檚 Big Three. is based off the 2015-16 cap figure. and both hold opt-out clauses for this summer, meaning they could reset their max deal to a percentage of the new cap.

Given the approximate $6 million or 10 percent increase to the cap this summer, the combined effects for the Big Three would add $5.6 million to the team鈥檚 salaries. That brings the estimated $89.4 million number up to $95 million:

Another look at how cap increases can affect estimates/new max amounts for Cavs Big Three in 2015-16

Jacob Rosen (@WFNYJacob)



In addition, both Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert are restricted free agents. Their qualifying offers are for $6.8 million and $3.7 million, respectively. A sizable increase is certainly likely for Thompson after he rejected a deal this past October. There鈥檚 no knowing exactly what might be a future contract for Shumpert, who has played exceptionally well off the bench thus far.

So will the Cavs consider trading Haywood this summer? Even without jumps in salaries for Thompson and Shumpert, you can already start to see the tricky salary math for the Cavs in 2015-16. Fortunately again, this might only be a one-year stint in the tax zone. But it could get ugly.

With the estimated $69 million cap figure, the tax line would be approximately $83 million:

Another chart: Tried to estimate increase of tax line based on increases to the cap. Uses diff % of BRI.

Jacob Rosen (@WFNYJacob)



From my earlier math, I鈥檝e got the Cavs at $95 million already. Using , a non-repeater team $12 million over the tax line would pay $21.3 million in taxes back to the NBA. That鈥檚 a non-significant amount, for sure.

But what if the Cavs trade Haywood and take back $10 million in salaries? That would push the team to being $22 million over the cap 鈥?resulting in a gigantic $52.5 million tax bill. You see the issue now.

The NBA鈥檚 new progressive tax system, installed with the 2011 CBA, is the closest thing possible to a real-life hard salary cap. By just adding $10 million in player salaries, the Cavs would be paying over $30 million extra in taxes. That鈥檚 a 300% tax rate!

And again, this is without increases for Thompson and Shumpert, and the fact I previously only included 11 players. The Cavs also have first- and second-round selections in the 2015 NBA draft. These additional salaries could actually add to the tax rate increase for a Haywood-based summer acquisition.

This is again why many petitioned for during this deadline. But now, as the Cavaliers move closer to the playoffs, we know a little bit more about what to expect this summer salary cap-wise. And it鈥檚 why Dan Gilbert would have to open his wallet quite a bit to make any major roster changes in the coming months.

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